Friday, November 05, 2004

TradeSports.com - E-Zine: "The Bush contract began election day trading at 58, slightly higher from Monday's close however, as word spread to the trading desks that early exit polls have shown unexpected high voter turn out, considered a plus for John Kerry, both the stock market and the Bush contract began to sell off. The Dow fell over 100 points over the next hour while the Bush contract dropped 25 points virtually cutting the market in half.

As the details of how the exit polls were conducted became known traders realized the market may have over reacted and buying entered the market which eventually lifted the Bush contract from 30 back to 50 and by 7 pm EST the market recovered almost it's entire loss. 'The networks were understandably cautious about making any predictions as they did in 2000 and so they didn't offer much guidance however it did seem like the Intrade political markets were far ahead of their eventual announcements', says Mike Knesevitch Intrade Communications Director. 'In Florida and Ohio for example the polls closed by 8 EST yet there was no media announcements until after 10:30 but the Intrade markets showed that Bush would be the likely winner.'"

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